Marzano Research
Education is in the midst of a rare kind of upheaval. Technology is accelerating, policy expectations are changing, and workforce pressures are no longer hypothetical.
In short, no one is getting a breather. But as 2026 approaches, the big shifts shaping daily work in state agencies and schools are coming into focus.
Based on national research, policy signals, and our work across districts and state education agencies, here are six predictions worth paying attention to in the year ahead, including why they matter, key resources, and how our work supports efforts in practice.
1. AI readiness becomes a core indicator of instructional quality and the new digital divide emerges.
By the end of 2026, the gap between districts that prepare educators to use AI well and those overwhelmed by its risks and options will be unmistakable. Expect more states to move beyond establishing data privacy rules to issuing AI guidance tied to instructional standards.
At the same time, even where internet access is stable, many families lack devices and software with modern learning tools, creating an “AI access gap.” Closing this gap will become a key issue.
Why it Matters: AI readiness will increasingly signal instructional coherence and capacity, not just innovation.
Key Resources: Federal AI guidance; Track state AI guidance; find AI resources for education; ; how AI intersects with education and skills policy, research, and practice
In Practice
• Short-cycle inquiry to test AI-supported instructional routines
• Core practices that hold even when technology access varies
• Pairing high-tech strategies with low-tech alternatives
2. Employability skills move from aspiration to accountability.
State policy is moving beyond broad college and career readiness language toward concrete expectations: employability skills, work-based , industry-recognized credentials, and applied performance tasks Portraits of a Graduate, competency-based learning, and multiple pathways will increasingly be tied to measurable outcomes.
As expectations become measurable and public, districts will be held accountable for embedding them across systems rather than in isolated CTE programs.
Why it Matters: Employability skills are moving from add-ons to becoming part of accountability systems that affect funding, ratings, compliance, and public trust.
Key Resources: Building a Future-Ready Workforce report; Future-Proofing Employability Skills: 5 Urgent Shifts Education Leaders Can’t Afford to Ignore; CBE state policy tracker
In Practice
• Clarifying graduate outcomes that anchor in curriculum and assessment
• Embedding measurable competencies in core coursework
• Supporting systemwide change without initiative overload
3. Birth–3 integration expands beyond literacy.
More states will deepen integration between early childhood and K–3, expanding beyond literacy to include numeracy, developmental screening, and family engagement. This work requires alignment across instructional materials, coaching models, and early intervention processes that have traditionally lived in separate systems.
Why it Matters: Fragmented early learning systems weaken otherwise strong Pre-K–12 improvement efforts.
Key Resources: Illinois example; Promising B–3 State Level Strategies
In Practice
• Reviewing early learning and early-grade instructional coherence
• Aligning screening and intervention across settings
• Supporting state and district B–3 redesign efforts
4. Science of Reading stabilizes and early numeracy becomes the next reform wave.
By the end of 2026, the Science of Reading will be the baseline expectation rather than a reform. Literacy efforts will center on implementation quality, Tier 1 instruction, and usable data rather than adoption.
At the same time, states will launch intensive early numeracy initiatives, including new guidance, screening requirements, and professional learning expectations.
Why it Matters: Systems that treat literacy and numeracy as disconnected efforts will struggle to scale impact.
Key Resource: What Works Clearinghouse Teaching Math to Young Children practice guide
In Practice
• Early numeracy landscape scans
• Aligning literacy and math within Tier 1 instruction
• Supporting selection and use of screening tools
5. Teacher shortages become structural instead of cyclical.
Teacher preparation enrollment continues to decline, making shortages a baseline condition for many districts and a chronic issue in many rural systems. In response, states and districts will expand on-the-job preparation, apprenticeships, and micro-credentialed skill pathways.
Why it Matters: Instructional consistency increasingly depends on systems, not individual experience.
Key Resource: State teacher recruitment and retention data
In Practice
• High-leverage instructional frameworks for novice teachers
• PLC structures for small, overstretched teams
• Coaching and mentoring aligned to alternative preparation pathways
6. Tier 1 systems and leadership pipelines replace initiative-heavy improvement plans.
ESSER reinforced a hard lesson: isolated programs cannot solve deeply interconnected challenges. In 2026, more districts and SEAs will move away from initiative-heavy plans and toward embedded leadership pipelines, coaching infrastructure, and continuous improvement routines.
Behavioral needs and absenteeism will persist, especially in K–5, but states will increasingly prioritize Tier 1 routines and instructional consistency over reactive, Tier 3-heavy approaches. These pressures will intensify as enrollment volatility increases, driven in part by expanding parent choice policies and alternative schooling options in many states.
Key Resources: What Works Clearinghouse Behavioral Interventions practice guide; What Works Clearinghouse Preventing Dropout practice guide
Why it Matters: Strong systems absorb disruption. Weak ones multiply it.
In Practice
• System reviews to clarify strengths and gaps
• Root cause analysis tied to real data
• Short improvement cycles that build durable capacity
Ready or not…
Ready or not, 2026 is almost here. None of these shifts will be solved by a single program, tool, or framework. What seems to matter most is whether leaders can name a few concrete priorities, build coherent systems around them, and adapt without constant reinvention.
Uncertainty remains even with these predictions. That’s normal. The work ahead favors clarity, evidence, and steady progress over noise. We spend our time inside schools, districts, and state systems finding out what actually holds under pressure. If any of these topics feel urgent in your context, we’re always open to conversation.
