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State capitols opened this year under unusually high pressure. Lawmakers face tighter budgets, higher public expectations, and faster policy change than at any point since the pandemic. District and school leaders enter the 2026 legislative cycle facing tight funding, less predictable federal involvement, and widening differences among state policy choices. For superintendents, cabinet leaders, and district teams responsible for finance, curriculum, and strategy, this creates a central challenge: planning responsibly amid ongoing volatility.

In a year defined by uncertainty, informed sensemaking is a strategic advantage. At Marzano Research, we support partners by synthesizing policy shifts and translating complexity into usable insights. This blog summarizes six education policy trends to watch as legislative sessions unfold, drawing on signals from national policy organizations and early state actions.

6 Education Policy Trends to Watch During Legislative Sessions

Across states, the 2026 legislative cycle is defined by widening differences in policy direction. Leaders should expect variable funding flows, delayed guidance, and cautious state decision-making. Systems that align local decisions with state priorities will be better able to handle disruption and keep teaching on track.

1. Federal and State Volatility Shapes Legislative Behavior

Why it matters in 2026

State lawmakers enter 2026 with heightened concern about federal predictability. Recent federal fund withholdings and ongoing uncertainty in federal education budget negotiations have made state planning more difficult and increased legislative caution.

Policy signals and examples

In response, many legislatures are prioritizing core education funding while delaying new initiatives and increasing scrutiny of discretionary spending. Federal-level uncertainty is now a key factor shaping state education budgets and oversight decisions.

Key resource

Education Commission of the States (ECS) State Education Policy Tracking Tool

What to watch

  • Delayed or scaled-back education initiatives
  • Increased emphasis on protecting base funding formulas

Implication for leaders

Expect slower policy rollout and more pressure to show how local spending decisions align with state priorities and legal requirements.

2. School Choice Policy Moves from Proposal to Practice

Why it matters in 2026

Private school choice has evolved into a broad policy ecosystem that includes education savings accounts (ESAs), vouchers, tax-credit scholarships, and related guardrails. While expansion continues, legislative attention is shifting toward implementation.

Policy signals and examples

States are pairing access expansion with a second wave of policy activity focused on oversight, auditing, eligibility rules, allowable expenses, and fraud prevention. At the federal level, the newly enacted Federal Education Freedom Tax Credit Program allows taxpayers to support scholarship organizations, prompting some states to opt-in as early as 2026. Idaho’s Parental Choice Tax Credit, and ESA expansion in states such as Arkansas and Iowa, illustrate how quickly policies are moving from statute to practice.

Key resource

National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) Education Choice Policy Resources

What to watch

  • “Clean-up” bills focused on program integrity
  • Tension between expansion goals and accountability expectations

Implication for leaders

Districts should expect increased reporting, data requests, and oversight tied to choice policies, often preceding the release of detailed implementation guidance.

3. The ESSER Cliff Reshapes State Expectations

Why it matters in 2026

The expiration of federal COVID relief funding is revealing structural funding pressures that temporary ESSER investments had obscured. Districts are losing access to nearly $190 billion in one-time funding.

Policy signals and examples

States are responding unevenly. Some have deployed stabilization funds or targeted formula investments, while others expect districts to absorb reductions locally. Analysts note a broad shift from budget expansion to recalibration, driven by rising costs, enrollment declines, and political constraints. Fiscal pressure is also increasing skepticism toward standalone initiatives that lack alignment with one another or with district goals and duplicative spending.

Key resources

What to watch

  • Flatter funding growth and tighter staffing decisions
  • Higher justification thresholds for programs and procurement

Implication for leaders

Budget conversations are shifting from growth to sustainability, making it more important to clearly link expenditures to outcomes and legislative priorities.

4. Curriculum and Instruction Integration Remains a Central Focus

Why it matters in 2026

Despite fiscal pressure and choice debates, curriculum and instructional quality remain core legislative concerns. States are signaling a preference for coherence over isolated initiatives.

Policy signals and examples

Legislatures are introducing bills tied to literacy, math outcomes, career pathways, and instructional improvement, often emphasizing alignment across standards, instructional materials, assessments, and professional learning. ExcelinEd’s 2026 policy agenda reflects this shift, and states such as Mississippi and Tennessee continue to pair literacy policy with coaching, materials alignment, and educator support.

Key resource

ExcelinEd 2026 Policy Playbook

What to watch

  • Expansion of literacy policy beyond early grades
  • Math policy adopting clearer instructional and intervention expectations

Implication for leaders

States are signaling that instructional improvement efforts must be cohesive and aligned. Districts pursuing fragmented or unaligned initiatives may face increased scrutiny.

5. Smartphone-Free School Policies Are Moving from Local Discretion to State Mandates

Why it matters in 2026

Student smartphone use has shifted from a local management issue to a state policy concern, driven by attention, instructional time, and student well-being.

Policy signals and examples

A January 2026 MultiState policy analysis documents a rapid increase in bills and enacted laws requiring districts to adopt formal smartphone policies or imposing statewide restrictions outright. This reflects a shift toward uniform expectations across districts.

Key resource

MultiState How State Lawmakers Are Addressing Cell Phones in Schools

What to watch

  • Mandate strength (district-required policies versus statewide bans)
  • Enforcement responsibilities and accommodation requirements

Implication for leaders

Even districts with existing policies may need to update implementation, communication, enforcement, and evaluation/monitoring systems to meet new legal requirements.

6. AI Governance Is Entering K–12  Through Policies on Privacy, Deepfakes, and Parental Rights

Why it matters in 2026

Artificial intelligence is entering K–12 policy less through instructional innovation and more through governance and risk management. States are prioritizing privacy protections, safeguards against misinformation and deepfakes, and parental rights ahead of comprehensive instructional guidance.

Policy signals and examples

More than 30 states have issued guidance or convened task forces related to AI use in education. Governance organizations emphasize AI as a board-level issue tied to misinformation, student safety, and transparency. AI policy is also increasingly bundled with media literacy and device-related legislation.

Key resources

What to watch

  • Whether AI policy is codified in education, privacy, or consumer protection statutes
  • Emerging AI and media literacy requirements

Implication for leaders

Districts may face new AI-related compliance requirements before clear instructional guidance is available, increasing the need for proactive governance and communication.

What This Means for District and School Leaders

Entering 2026, education policy reflects ongoing instability layered onto long-standing structural pressures. District leaders will need to closely track policy, interpret funding signals, and make informed decisions amid uneven timelines and shifting guidance. Leaders who stay alert to policy developments are better positioned to protect instructional priorities, anticipate change, and respond proactively.

This level of responsiveness goes beyond monitoring headlines, requiring disciplined sensemaking grounded in evidence. With deep experience at the intersection of education research, policy, and implementation, Marzano Research brings clarity and confidence to leaders navigating uncertainty. Our experts help schools and districts track policy, make sense of changes, and understand what it means in practice. We also provide facilitated sensemaking, professional learning, and coaching to support informed decision-making.

If this summary was useful or raised questions about how policy changes may affect your system, our team is available to talk through what we are seeing.